January Chargebacks Explained: Why the New Year is the Riskiest Time

January Chargebacks

January is consistently one of the highest months for chargeback activity, creating what many merchants refer to as the “January chargeback avalanche.” While the holiday shopping season may be over, the financial and fraud-related consequences are just beginning.

Understanding why chargebacks spike in January and how to prepare for them is critical for protecting revenue, maintaining payment processor relationships, and reducing long-term fraud risk.

Why Chargebacks Peak in January

The January surge in chargebacks is not random. It’s the delayed fallout from holiday shopping behavior combined with fraud tactics that exploit seasonal blind spots.

1. The Built-In Delay Between Purchase and Dispute

Chargebacks rarely happen immediately after a transaction.

Most card networks allow 45-60 days (and in some cases up to 120 days) for a cardholder to dispute a charge. That means purchases made during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or Christmas and year-end promotions often don’t surface as disputes until January or February, when consumers finally review their statements.

2. Buyer’s Remorse and Post-Holiday Returns

After the holidays, consumers reassess their spending and discover purchases they no longer want or need.

Common triggers include:

• Gifts that were unwanted, duplicated, or unused.
• Return windows that have expired.
• Confusion over merchant names on billing statements.

When refunds feel inconvenient, many consumers skip the merchant entirely and file a chargeback instead, even when fraud was not involved.

3. Customer Support Bottlenecks Turn Refunds into Chargebacks

Holiday sales volume often overwhelms support teams. When January arrives, response times slow, temporary holiday staff may be gone, and backlogs from December persist.

If customers can’t resolve issues quickly, filing a chargeback feels faster and easier than waiting for merchant support, even though it’s far more damaging to the business.

4. Fraud in Holiday Traffic

The holiday season creates perfect cover for fraudsters. High transaction volume makes it easier to:

• Blend fraudulent purchases with legitimate ones.
• Test stolen cards without immediate detection.
• Delay disputes until weeks later.

By the time those fraudulent transactions turn into chargebacks, they surface all at once in January, magnifying the impact.

5. Fraud Activity Doesn’t Slow Down After December; it Often Accelerates.

In mid-to-late January, fraudsters will:

• Exploit weakened monitoring as teams reset after the holidays.
• Target merchants with reduced staffing or alert fatigue.
• Capitalize on gaps created when seasonal controls are removed.

This results in new fraud-driven chargebacks layered on top of holiday fallout.

Why January Chargebacks are Especially Dangerous

January chargebacks are more than a short-term nuisance; they can have lasting consequences. Chargeback ratios spike fast.

Chargeback ratios are calculated by dividing disputes by total transactions. Since January sales volume is typically lower than December, even a modest number of chargebacks can:

• Push merchants over card network thresholds.
• Trigger monitoring programs.
• Lead to higher processing fees or account termination.

How Merchants Can Reduce January Chargeback Risk

Preparation is the difference between absorbing the impact and being overwhelmed by it. Smart chargeback mitigation strategies include:

• Reviewing historical chargeback trends by month.
• Strengthening fraud detection before the holidays, not after.
• Improving billing descriptors to reduce “friendly fraud.”
• Ensuring customer support remains responsive in January.
• Identifying non-human and fraudulent traffic before it converts.

Stopping fraud before a transaction occurs is the most effective way to prevent chargebacks, especially those that surface weeks later.

Anura’s Chargeback and Fraud Prevention

Chargebacks are rarely the starting point; they’re the result of fraud that went undetected earlier.

Anura helps stop chargebacks before they happen by preventing fraudulent traffic from converting in the first place. Through real-time visitor environment analysis, Anura identifies and blocks:

• Bots and automated tools are used to generate fraudulent purchases.
• Non-human traffic disguised within high-volume holiday campaigns.
• Repeat fraud attempts that lead to future disputes and chargebacks.

By eliminating fraud at the source, Anura reduces the likelihood of downstream chargebacks, protects chargeback ratios, and helps merchants avoid costly penalties during the critical post-holiday period.

Chargebacks Don’t Start in January, They Surface in January

January may feel like a fresh start, but for merchants, it’s often when holiday fraud and consumer disputes come out.

Chargebacks are a delayed signal of deeper issues, such as fraud that slipped through during peak volume, poor visibility into traffic quality, or gaps in post-holiday monitoring.

Merchants that proactively prevent fraud during holiday months (and even year-round) are far better positioned to protect revenue, maintain compliance, and start the year strong.